If you’ve been busy climbing and mountain biking in the desert and missed the news, it’s an El Niño year this season.

Now that winter’s arrived, we’ll soon know how accurate the predictions are. The Climate Predication Center’s most recent update from Nov. 27 states, “El Niño conditions are observed, equatorial sea surface temperatures are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with El Niño and El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere’s spring. There are additional reports from meteorologists from the last 30 days that this El Niño is historically strong and/or strengthening.” 

Before you get all excited about being neck deep in the fluffy stuff all winter and start booking expensive flights and buying new fat skis, you should know El Niño’s a complex topic. Conditions vary depending on where you’re skiing. Some regions might experience that epic season we all dream about, and some might experience drought or, yikes, more rain events due to warmer El Niño temperatures.